Post-Processing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications
HEPEX
Workshop
June 15-18, 2009
Toulouse, France
Draft Workshop Report DOC
Book
of Abstracts PDF
List of Participants PDF
|
||||||
|
||||||
start |
end |
|
|
Abstract # |
||
1 – Introduction (chair : Jean Pailleux) |
|
|||||
13:00 |
13:20 |
|
Welcome address by Météo-France and SCHAPI |
|
||
13:20 |
13:45 |
|
Objectives of the Workshop |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
||
2 - Operational Systems - Meteorological Ensembles (Global) (chair : Jean Pailleux) |
|
|||||
13:45 |
14:00 |
|
ECWMF: Supporting hydrological forecasting Pappenberger, F. Buizza, R., Hagedorn, R., ECMWF | |||
14:00 |
14:15 |
|
Calibration of Hydro-meteorological Ensemble Forecast at NCEP Toth Z. and Hou D., EMC/NCEP/NOAA/, USA | |||
14:15 |
14:30 |
|
Ensemble forecasting at Météo-France. Potential for the precipitation forecasts Descamps L., Labadie C., Joly A., Joly B., Arbogast P., Météo-France | |||
14:30 |
14:45 |
|
WMO research weather prediction activities relevant for ensemble hydrology forecasts Nickovic S., WMO | |||
|
|
|
|
|
||
14:45 |
15:30 |
|
Coffee and posters |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
||
3 - Operational Systems - Hydrological Applications (Chair : Jean Pailleux) |
|
|||||
15:30 |
15:45 |
|
The European Flood Alert System – a review, Thielen J. , Salamon P., de Roo A., JRC | |||
15:45 |
16:00 |
|
Status of hydrologic ensemble prediction at U.S. National Weather service, Restrepo P., Schaake J., NWS | |||
16:00 |
16:15 |
|
Use of probailistic forecast at EDF : a multiscale and multi-scale problem, Gaillard J., Dubus L. et al., EDF | |||
16:15 |
16:30 |
|
Ensemble weather forecasting at BC hydro, Mc Collor D., BC HYDRO | |||
4 - Operational Systems - Users&Decision makers (chair : Jean Pailleux) |
||||||
16:30 |
16:45 |
|
Cost-benefit analysis for operational water management with ensemble predictions, van Andel S ., Lobbrecht A., Price R., UNESCO-IHE/HydroLogic | |||
16:45 |
17:00 |
|
Communicating uncertainty information with warnings of natural hazards : COST731, Bruen M ., University College Dublin, Ireland |
|||
17:00 |
18:00 |
|
Plenary Discussion |
|
||
Tuesday 16 June 2009 - Morning |
|||||
start |
end |
|
|
Abstract # |
|
5 - From precipitation measurements to flash flood and short range (chair : Maria-Héléna Ramos) |
|
||||
09:00 |
09:15 |
|
The COST731 action "Propagation of uncertainty in Advanced Meteo-hydrological models", Rossa A., ARPA Veneto |
||
09:15 |
09:30 |
|
COST731 radar report, Pfeifer, M., Alberoni P.-P., HYDS / A.R.P.A. Bologna |
||
09:30 |
09:45 |
|
Radar Data Quality Index - A Tower of Babel?, EinfaltT., Szturc J. |
||
09:45 |
10:00 |
|
Multi-sources QPE re-analyses and their introduction in hydrological models: elaboration of an informative database for hydrologic and climatologic studies and a powerful tool for hydrological ensemble predictions, Moulin, L. , Tabary, P., Andréassian, V., Gueguen, C., Laurantin, O., Loumagne, C., Parent du Châtelet, J., Soubeyroux, J.-M, CEMAGREF / Météo-France |
||
10:00 |
10:15 |
|
Hydrometeorological Forecasts for Fast Reacting Catchments: Comparison of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Impact assessment on Streamflow Forecasts, Moulin L., Marty R., Obled Ch., Brunelle J., Goutx D., Faucard Y., Reinbold D. CEMAGREF / Météo-France / LTHE / SPC Loire Cher Indre | ||
10:15 |
10:30 |
|
An ensemble forecast approach for evaluating the convective-scale predictability of Mediterranean heavy precipitation, Nuissier O., Vié B., Ducrocq V., CNRM-GAME (Météo-France/CNRS) |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
10:30 |
11:15 |
|
Coffee and posters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11:15 |
11:30 |
|
Ensembles forecasts for fast reacting watersheds, Schuman A., Institute for Hydrology, Ruhr- University Bochum, |
||
11:30 |
11:45 |
|
Diurnal variation of summer precipitation in China, Rucong Y, Jian L. | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 - Short to Medium Range (chair : Maria-Héléna Ramos) |
|
||||
11:45 |
12:00 |
|
Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling of Meteorological Forecasts, Arritt R., Iowa state university |
||
12:00 |
12:15 |
|
An overview of the use of reforecasts for precipitation forecast calibration,Tom Hamill , NOAA/ESRL, USA |
||
12:15 |
12:30 |
|
Statistical calibration of precipitation ensembles: an empirical comparison of a few methods, Bremnes J. B ., Norwegian Meteorological Inst. | ||
12:30 |
12:45 |
|
MOGREPS Short-range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation, Mylne K. et al., Met Office | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
12:45 |
14:15 |
|
Lunch |
|
|
Tuesday 16 June 2009 - Afternoon |
|||||
| start end | Abstract # | ||||
6 - Short to Medium Range - continued (chair : Raymond Arritt) |
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
14:15 |
14:30 |
|
Testing calibration techniques based on reforecasts for limited-area ensemble precipitation forecasts, Diomede T., Marsigli C., Montani A., Paccagnella T., ARPA-SIMC / CIMA Res. Found. |
||
14:30 |
14:45 |
|
Multimodel Ensemble for Short Range Prediction (SREPS), Garcia-Moya , J. A.; Callado, A.; Escriba, P.; Santos, C.; Santos-Muoz, D.; Simarro, J., AEMET |
||
14:45 |
15:00 |
|
ALADIN Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting
, Wang Y., Pailleux J., ZAMG/Météo-France |
||
15:00 |
15:15 |
|
On the importance of meteorological downscaling for short, medium and long range hydrological ensemble prediction over France, Thirel G., Regimbeau F., Tanguy G., Martin E., Franchisteguy L., Céron J.-P., Noilhan J., Habets F., CNRM-GAME, Météo-France, CNRS / UMR SISYPHE |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
15:15 |
16:00 |
|
Coffee and poster |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16:00 |
16:15 |
|
The comparison of the different inputs and outputs of hydrologic prediction system as: the full sets of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), the reforecast and the calibration of this system by the verification tools of ensemble forecasts., Trinh B. N., Bogner K., Joint Research Centre. |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
7 - Long Range (chair : Raymond Arritt) |
|
||||
16:15 |
16:30 |
|
Downscaling of seasonal forecasts for hydro-power, Qu Z., Dubus L., Berthelot M., Gailhard J., EDF R&D, France |
||
16:30 |
16:45 |
|
A statistical methodology based on weather-typing that could potentially mitigate numerical model systematic biases for seasonal forecasts, Pagé C., Terray L., Boé J., Cerfacs / UCLA |
||
16:45 |
17:00 |
|
Downscaling large scale precipitation and temperature fields for hydrological seasonal forecasting and data assimilation, Wood E., Luo L., Pan M., Princeton University |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 - Hydrologic Ensembles (chair : Raymond Arritt) |
|
||||
17:00 |
17:15 |
|
Evaluation and bias correction of daily QPF's : Impact on hydrological ensemble forecasts, Marty R., Zin I., Obled Ch., LTHE _ INPG |
||
17:15 |
17:30 |
|
Hydrological Ensemble Forecast for the River Danube focused on the applied downscaling method Csik A., Balint G., VITUKI, Hungary | ||
Wednesday 17 June 2009 - Morning |
|||||
start |
end |
|
|
Abstract # |
|
8 - Hydrologic Ensembles – continued (chair : Eric Martin) |
|
||||
09:00 |
09:15 |
|
Reducing Meteorological and Hydrological Uncertainties in ESP : A Korean Case Study., Kim Y.-O., Kang T.-H., Yeo D., Kim K.-J., Hong I.-P , Seoul National University / Korea Institute of Construction Technology | ||
09:15 |
09:30 |
|
Performance and reliability of multimodel hydrological ensemble simulations: A case study based on 17 global models and 1061 French catchments, Velazquez J. A ., Perrin C., Anctil C., Université Laval / Cémagref | ||
09:30 |
09:45 |
|
Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system, Reggiani, Renner, Weerts, van Gelder / Deltares TU-Delft |
||
9 - Ensemble Verification (chair : Eric Martin) |
|
||||
09:45 |
10:00 |
|
HEPEX Verification Test Bed, Demargne J., Franz K., Fortin V., Pappenberger F., Perreault L. , NOAA / UCAR / Iowa State University / Environnement Canada / ECMWF, Hydro Québec |
||
10:00 |
10:15 |
|
A “Peak-Flow Box” for Supporting Interpretation and Verification of operational Ensemble Flood Forecasts, Zappa M., Jaun S., WSL |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
10:15 |
11:00 |
|
Coffee and poster |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 - Theoretical Perspectives (chair : Eric Martin) |
|
||||
11:00 |
11:15 |
|
Predictive Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting, Todini E., University of Bologna |
||
11:15 |
11:30 |
|
Quantification and propagation of three sources of uncertainties in operational flood forecasting chains in mountainous areas, Zappa M., Jaun S., Germann U., Walser A., WSL / IACETH, MeteoSwiss |
||
11:30 |
11:45 |
|
A nonparametric post-processor for removing biases from ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables, Brown J. D . and Seo D.-J., NOAA/NWS/UCAR | ||
11:45 |
12:00 |
|
Assessment of the total predictive uncertainty of a real-time hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system using bivariate meta-gaussian density, Hostache R., Matgen P., Pfister L. | ||
12:00 |
12:15 |
|
Precipitation Stochastic Modeling, Predictability and Forecasts Schertzer D., Tchiguirinskaia I., Macor J., Lovejoy S., U. Paris Est / Ecole des Ponts / LEESU / Météo-France / Cemagref / U. Nacional del Litoral / McGill U. | ||
12:15 |
12:30 |
|
A combined approach for generating skilful forecasts of weather variable forcings for global streamflow forecasts Hopson T., Pappenberger F., Schaake J., NCAR / ECMWF / /OHD-USNWS | ||
5 - Flash Flood and Short Range (continued) (chair : Eric Martin) |
|
||||
12:30 |
12:45 |
|
Using ensembles to represent rainfall uncertainties in radar QPE and QPF for hydrologic applications Sempere-Torres, D LLort, X, Rocca J., Pegram , G., CRAHI / UKZN | ||
|
|
|
|
|
|
12:45 |
14:15 |
|
Lunch |
|
|
Wednesday 17 June 2009 - Afternoon |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 - Breakout Groups (Chair : John Schaake, Andrea Rossa) |
|
||||
14:15 |
14:30 |
|
Plenary discussion on groups |
|
|
14:30 |
15:30 |
|
Breakout groups. Tentative groups (to be discussed): Propagation of uncertainty from observing systems (radars) into NWP Downscaling short range predictions for hydrologic applications Donwscaling medium to long range predictin for hydrologic applications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15:30 |
16:15 |
|
Coffee and posters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16:15 |
17:00 |
|
Breakout Groups |
|
|
Thursday 18 June 2009 |
|||||
11 - Breakout Groups (continued) (Chair : John Schaake, Andrea Rossa) |
|
||||
09:00 |
10:00 |
|
Plenary session : Breakout Group Reports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 - Future Collaborations (Chair : John Schaake) |
|
||||
10:00 |
10:30 |
|
HEPEX Plenary Session : Proposal for future collaboration, (In parallel COST731 Management committee) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10:30 |
11:15 |
|
Coffee |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11:15 |
12:45 |
|
Breakout groups to discuss proposal, (in Parallel COST731 Management committee) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12:45 |
14:15 |
|
Lunch |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 - Future Collaborations – Continued (Chair : John Schaake) |
|
||||
14:15 |
15:00 |
|
Breakout group reports |
|
|
15:00 |
15:30 |
|
Plenary discussion of proposal |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15:30 |
16:15 |
|
Coffee |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16:15 |
17:00 |
|
Plenary discussion on workshop publications |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– – – – – – – End of workshop – – – – – – – |
|||||
List of Posters |
||
Rainfall and runoff ensembles produced based on the quality index of radar precipitation data, Szturc J, Einfalt T., Osrodka K., Jurczyk A., IMGW, Poland |
Abstracts # 3 |
|
Impact of the use of two different hydrological models on scores of hydrological ensemble forecasts, Randrianasolo A., Ramos M. H., Thirel G., Andréassian V., Martin E., Cemagref / CNRM-GAME |
||
High resolution ensemble forecast of flash-flood, Vincendon B. ,Ducrocq V., Nuissier O., Saulnier G.-M., CNRM-GAME, EDYTHEM |
||
| Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System for the River Scheldt and the Meuse Basins, Van den Bergh J., Roulin E., Royal Meteorological Institute | 19 |
|
Generation and Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecast from Single-Value QPF at the Catchment Scale, Wu L., Seo D.-J., Demargne J., Brown J., NOAA, NWS, UCAR, Wyle information system |
||
| Streamflow ensemble forecasts driven by COSMO-LEPS for small-size catchments in northern Italy, Diomede T., Marsigli C., Montani A., Paccagnella T., ARPA/SIMC / CIMA | 25 |
|
| An estimation of QPF uncertainty by ensemble skill, Zacharov P., Rezacova D., IAP ASCR | 29 |
|
| Probability forecast of intensive precipitation and floods in mesoscale catchments located in the Rhine basin – Experimental results and operational design, J. Bliefernicht, A. Bárdossy, N. Demuth, U. Stuttgart / Env. State Ag. Rheinland-Palatinate | ||
| Inflow Forecast Verification at Hydro-Québec, Perreault L., Gaudet J., Merleau L., Hydro-Québec | ||
Verifying Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. National Weather Service, Demargne J., Brown J., Liu Y., Seo D.-J., Wu L., NWS / UCAR / Riverside tec. Inc. /Wyle inf. Syst. |
||
| Ensemble flood forecasting: a review, Pappenberger F., Cloke H.L., ECMWF / King's College London | 34 |
|
| An ensemble of hydrological climate scenarios, Yang W., Olsson J., Rosberg J., SMHI, Sweden | 35 |
|
| Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions, Wetterhall, Li, He, Cloke, Pappenberger, Bao, King's College / U. of Hohai / ECMWF | 37 |
|
| Reconstruction of high-resolution rainfall series using multiplicative cascades, Ceresetti D., Molinié G., Creutin J.D., LTHE | 43 |
|
| Atmospheric ensemble forecasts of precipitation with the convection-permitting model COSMO-DE, Theis S., Gebhardt C., Paulat M., Buchhold M., Ohl R., DWD | ||
| Monthly and seasonal EPS weather forecasts in hydrological forecasting in Finland, Ari K., Bertel V., Juha M., Finnish Environment Institute | 51 |
|
| MRED: Multi-RCM Ensemble Downscaling of global seasonal forecasts, Arritt R. for the MRED Team | 58 |
|
Object-oriented SAL Verification in Hydrological Catchments of Finland, Nurmi P., Näsman S., Finnish Meteorological Institute |
60 |
|
| Ensemble hydrological forecasting for flood management in the Brenta basin, Ferri Michele , Italy. | 62 |
|
Operational hydrological ensemble forecasts in France. Recent development of the French hydropower company (EDF), taking into account rainfall and hydrological model uncertainties, Mathevet, T, Garavaglia, F, Garçon, R, Gailhard, J, Paquet E., EDF, France |
||